No more ‘dragon babies’: why China’s birth figures are set to resume their downward spiral
China's birth numbers are expected to decline again this year, following a brief increase in 2024. This uptick was largely driven by a rise in marriages in 2023 and the cultural significance of the Year of the Dragon, which encouraged some couples to plan for a "dragon baby." Despite the slight increase to 9.54 million births in 2024, up from 9.02 million the previous year, demographers caution that this is just a temporary fluctuation in an otherwise ongoing trend of population decline.
The anticipation that 2024 might mark a turning point in China's demographic challenges was fueled by the government's pro-birth policies and the celebratory media coverage. However, experts remain skeptical about reversing the long-term decline. The number of marriage registrations, a key indicator of potential birth rates, is expected to hit its lowest since 1980, with only 4.75 million couples married in the first nine months of 2024—a stark 16.6% decrease from the same period in 2023. This data suggests that the factors contributing to the rise in births are not sustainable, and the population decline is likely to continue.
via SCMP Full Text Feed
China's birth numbers are expected to decline again this year, following a brief increase in 2024. This uptick was largely driven by a rise in marriages in 2023 and the cultural significance of the Year of the Dragon, which encouraged some couples to plan for a "dragon baby." Despite the slight increase to 9.54 million births in 2024, up from 9.02 million the previous year, demographers caution that this is just a temporary fluctuation in an otherwise ongoing trend of population decline.
The anticipation that 2024 might mark a turning point in China's demographic challenges was fueled by the government's pro-birth policies and the celebratory media coverage. However, experts remain skeptical about reversing the long-term decline. The number of marriage registrations, a key indicator of potential birth rates, is expected to hit its lowest since 1980, with only 4.75 million couples married in the first nine months of 2024—a stark 16.6% decrease from the same period in 2023. This data suggests that the factors contributing to the rise in births are not sustainable, and the population decline is likely to continue.
via SCMP Full Text Feed
