The US-China Thucydides Trap is by no means a foregone conclusion
The Thucydides Trap, the idea that conflict between a rising power (China) and an established one (the US) is inevitable, is not predetermined but a matter of choice. While structural forces play a significant role, human agency can shape the outcome, offering a viable path to peace.
The historical analogy of Athens and Sparta highlights the risks, but examples like Britain and Germany in the 1890s demonstrate that conflict can be avoided through economic competition. Despite US containment efforts, China's strong economic growth and the extensive involvement of American companies in China, generating substantial revenue, create a foundation for cooperation. The potential return of Donald Trump, with his focus on economic outcomes and past praise of Xi Jinping, could further alter the dynamic, prioritizing mutual benefit over ideological divides.
via SCMP Full Text Feed
The Thucydides Trap, the idea that conflict between a rising power (China) and an established one (the US) is inevitable, is not predetermined but a matter of choice. While structural forces play a significant role, human agency can shape the outcome, offering a viable path to peace.
The historical analogy of Athens and Sparta highlights the risks, but examples like Britain and Germany in the 1890s demonstrate that conflict can be avoided through economic competition. Despite US containment efforts, China's strong economic growth and the extensive involvement of American companies in China, generating substantial revenue, create a foundation for cooperation. The potential return of Donald Trump, with his focus on economic outcomes and past praise of Xi Jinping, could further alter the dynamic, prioritizing mutual benefit over ideological divides.
via SCMP Full Text Feed
